Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
